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Here's the way I understand it as a "non-techie" person. Basically, the Year 2000 Problem (also known as Y2K-- Y for year and 2K for 2000) is about whether computers, especially old computers, will be able to recognize a date change.
When the programmers of the 50s and 60s were designing computer software, "memory" was very expensive, and "storage" was as big as a room. To save money and space they just shaved the first two digits off the year, so 1972 would be just 72. Everybody, including the computer, knew it was the year 1972. The programmers figured that by the year 2000 (which seemed like a million years away) all their equipment would be obsolete and everybody would be using something fancy by then.
Well, they were partially correct. We do have some very fancy and cheap computers nowadays, and many of them are designed to read the year 2000. But the kicker is that not all of our computers are fancy... some of those big old "mainframe" computers are still around, plugging away just exactly as they did 30 or 40 years ago.
When the first day of the year 2000 comes, it will go into most computers as 1/1/00. So, many computers will think it's the year 1900, not the year 2000, and any calculations having to do with the date will be wrong. Some computers may stop working (in technical terms, they'll "crash"), or they may just get really confused about what day it is and spew out incorrect information.
Let me take it a step further. When the programmers originally wrote the code (the information that tells the computer what it's supposed to do), they wrote it in specific "languages." The only problem is, there were lots of different languages and dialects. In looking at those languages today, it's like reading old Egyptian hieroglyphics -- you have to figure out what the hieroglyphics are.
To make matters more complicated, there were many programmers writing in "hieroglyphics," and, while two pictures may not have looked the same, both would communicate and work fine when they were written.
The same thing is basically true when programmers were writing lines of code. Each one was a little different, and most of them were custom made. So today, when trying to figure out which lines of code have a "date" problem, programmers have to go in and read each line of code one by one. Instead of being able to say, "Find the word 'date' and go in and change it to four characters instead of two," they have to look at each line to see what it says. One line may use the word "time," another "date," another "birthday," while another may use "clock." There are all kinds of words that could have been used. You have to go in and decipher the language for each individual program and figure out what the key word is that affects the date.
Unfortunately, since each line is possibly different you can't just look at the whole program. You have to look at each line within each program, so we are talking about billions and billions of lines of code.
Granted, there are computer programs that will help go in and find the line, but, in essence, somebody with some kind of a brain has to figure out what the word is that each individual programmer may have used to describe the "date." Even within programs and lines of code, different programmers would work on different sections of it, so there's not even consistency within the section. So if I worked on this particular part of the program, and you worked on that particular part of the program, we might be using a little bit different language, a little bit different wording. We'd get the same outcome, but we might have reached that outcome using different languages.
On top of that, there are many different ways to write the date in numbers. For example, when I write my birthdate, I usually write it as 7/26/54. But there are many ways to write it: 07/26/54, 26/07/54, 1954/07/26, 1954/26/07, Jul/26/54, and the list goes on.
Everything was done to save space and money. So what happens is, now there's this enormous big deal because the "hieroglyphics" language they wrote is an antiquated language. And, not thinking they'd ever need to know the languages or the programs, nobody kept records to go back and check. Nobody knows for sure what's buried in a lot of computer programs (especially government programs).
Then to make today's situation more "challenging," many of those original programmers have either retired (and no amount of money can pry them away from the ole fishin' hole), or they've passed on to that big computer heaven in the sky. The old computer languages (like COBOL) haven't been taught in years, and the modern-day technology whiz kids don't have any idea about those ancient computer languages. Those few programmers who do know the languages are commanding top dollar to fix the problem.
If that isn't complicated enough, there is another issue involving computer dates, and that is in "embedded chips."
Previously we've been talking about "software," the program that tells the computer hardware what to do. An embedded chip is hardware, that little microchip that has tons of information in it like angels dancing on the head of a pin.
Many of those chips have dates embedded in them. Those chips are literally in everything, and they are everywhere. They're in microwaves and grocery store scanners and automobiles and tons of things we use in our lives every day. Are they all going to be screwy with the date change? No... it's just that we don't know which ones will work and which ones won't.
Then, just to add insult to injury, the data from a computer that's OK ("2000-compliant") can essentially get "infected" by the data from a computer that's got date problems (non-compliant). This means that if my business has its computers all brand new and 2000-compliant, and my computer "talks" to another computer by modem, my computer is at risk for getting major problems.
Again, this doesn't mean that when the clock strikes midnight of 1999, ALL computers are going to stop. It's actually worse. Some computers may keep running but give incorrect information!
So how bad is that? Well, let's look at what typically happens on a home computer today. Many computers at home are used for personal finances (plus lots of games for the kids!). Today, if I'm using Quicken to keep my checkbook balanced (and provided that I've entered the numbers correctly), I assume that Quicken's math calculations are right. I know that if I added up a column of numbers on a sheet of paper (with no calculator!) and Quicken added those same numbers, we should come up with the same total. But if my total is different, well... there's more than a good chance I'm wrong!
But what happens if my computer becomes infected? How would I know whether Quicken's addition or mine was correct? Or the bank's records or mine are correct? Or the government's Social Security records or mine are correct? Remember, computers can't think and don't think.
Another example of how computers can't think is the beloved "spell check" function on the computer. Now, I don't want to say I'm a bad speller... it's just that it's so boring to spell a word the same way twice!
When I type a letter to a friend on my computer and the spell checker says a word is spelled wrong, I trust the computer's spelling. But occasionally, I'll intend to write a word like "guest" but hit the wrong key and spell "quest" instead. The computer doesn't see the word is spelled wrong since there is a word "quest." This actually happened to me one time when I sent a letter out to people for a fundraising banquet. I didn't proofread my letter, thinking that the spell check would have caught any mistakes. I invited a large number of people to be my quest at the banquet! I have to admit, I took a fair amount of teasing for quite some time!
Right now our confidence in the accuracy of our computers is pretty high. But what would happen if even a small percentage of computers started giving bad information?
The typical response I get from most women I talk to about the year 2000 problem goes something like this: "It won't affect me personally. Besides, someone will take care of it sooner or later." As I said, this was my response for many months until I began to research and study the situation in more depth. After months of research and analysis, I noticed that everybody who knows anything about Y2K or writes about it says the same thing: It's definitely a problem for each and every one of us. The only disagreement is over how big and widespread the problem will be when the new millennium comes.
Can the problem be fixed? The answer is yes! Technically, it's easy to fix. The issue is that it is so time-consuming to fix each line of code, and there are so many billions of lines of code to be fixed that there just isn't enough time to get it all fixed before the deadline of December 31, 1999.
It's like needing to change all the light bulbs in Las Vegas. Sure it can be done, but the time it would take to change each light bulb by hand is astronomical!
If everything isn't fixed and tested, problems will occur all at the same time (a cumulative effect). Then, if non-compliant computers start contaminating clean computers (the ripple effect), you have the possibility of one big ugly mess! It's like leaving the ball park in the last two minutes of the game in order to beat the traffic. If the score is close, and you wait until the end of the game to leave, you know you'll be sitting in a traffic jam of cars trying to get out of the parking lot, all at the same time!
In fact, some people predict that the date change problem will come months sooner than December 31, 1999, when September 9, 1999, arrives. In some computer programs, nines are read as a signal that the program should end. So, some computers might interpret 9/9/99 as a signal that they should shut down their programs.
Personally, I'm not a pessimist and I don't think the world is coming to an end. But the world as we know it may be coming to an end. Just as there is an aftermath from a hurricane or tornado, from everything I've read out there (and I've read a lot!) I do think there will be major inconveniences and upheavals that everybody, particularly women, needs to prepare for now.
I'm talking about the same kind of inconveniences that could befall you if there were a natural disaster, such as an earthquake, tornado, hurricane, or ice storm. And the steps I'll recommend later for dealing with such disasters will make your life easier should something unexpected occur. Best of all, if you follow even just a few of the simple steps I'll share with you, you'll gain valuable peace of mind. You won't have to be up nights worrying about the future or losing your head if those around you start to panic when the century rolls over.
Unlike an earthquake or a flood, the Y2K problem is predictable. There are small, inexpensive things you can start doing now to ensure that you and your family can look forward to New Year's Eve 1999 with anticipation, not dread. I want to tell you why Y2K is something we should take seriously enough so we don't have to fear it, and I'll tell you what you can do to minimize its effects on your life. For more information--and a continuation of her discussion on Y2K, visit Karen's web site:
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